8/15/2023 0 Comments Phoenix fire dispatch![]() ![]() According to Lojera, there is about a 35% chance for these conditions with a 65% chance of a normal to an above-than-normal level of precipitation in the region.īut this year’s monsoon might be slightly delayed, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service. Arizona's monsoon season normally runs from June 15 to Sept. This year’s monsoon has been forecasted to have drier-than-normal conditions with above-normal temperatures. ![]() "It (lightning) can be very effective at igniting fires in dry conditions (especially dry lightning, which occurs in storms with little rain), but will be limited this year if fuel moisture levels are still high when storms occur," Crimmins said. How are fires forecasted? What we know about Arizona's new year-round fire season “Once we get those daily thunderstorms to start materializing across the area due to the monsoon, then the wildfire season is going to shut off once we get that precipitation due to the monsoon pattern.”Īccording to Crimmins, this year's increased moisture could be helpful in preventing the spread of lightning-caused fires across the state. “We're now going into the monsoon season,” Lojero said. Coming monsoon might keep wildfires at bay Forest Service's Wildland Fire Assessment System, fuels could dry out as fast as one hour to as slow as 42 days. “If you get wet conditions that persist for months or seasons, then those fuels, they can get wet and it can take a while for them to dry up.”įuels such as trees and grasses dry at different speeds, depending on environmental factors and the diameter of the fuel. “In the fire community, they think of fuels in terms of very heavy fuels which are like trees and logs and it takes a long time for them to wet up and it takes a long time for them to dry down,” Crimmins said. Michael Crimmins, professor of climatology at the University of Arizona, is a wildfire expert who has studied climate conditions and their effects on wildfires for the past 18 years. ![]() ![]() Wildfire map: Track where fires are burning in Arizona in 2023 Wet conditions have kept trees, grasses from drying up In 2022, the entire state was under drought conditions this year, only about 18% of the state is experiencing some level of drought conditions. Drought Monitor, produced at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, drought conditions across the state are less severe than those in 2022. Compared with the first five months of 2023, we have already seen 3.34 inches of rainfall.Īccording to statistics from the U.S. During the first six months of 2022, only 0.9 inch of rainfall was seen in Phoenix. Rainfall statistics from the National Weather Service also show the differences in rainfall between 20. "In fact, we're still seeing that persist right through the earlier part of the summer." “We've had a really active winter and then we had a lot of snowfall across the high country and then good rainfall in the lower elevations and then cooler-than-normal temperatures," Lojero said. Gabriel Lojero, a meteorologist at the Phoenix office of the National Weather Service spoke on some of the weather conditions that have affected this year's wildfire season. View Gallery: Photos: Arizona wildfires 2023 Lots of snow, rain and cooler-than-normal temps helped drought ![]()
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